Short-term forecasting of electricity prices in the Colombian electricity market

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dc.contributor.authorLira, F.
dc.contributor.authorMunoz, C.
dc.contributor.authorNunez, F.
dc.contributor.authorCipriano, A.
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-10T14:21:39Z
dc.date.available2024-01-10T14:21:39Z
dc.date.issued2009
dc.description.abstractThe restructuring of the electricity-generating industry from protected monopoly to an open competitive market has presented producers with a problem scheduling generation: finding the optimal bidding strategy to maximise their profits. In order to solve this scheduling problem, a reliable system capable of forecasting electricity prices is needed. This work evaluates the forecasting capabilities of several modelling techniques for the next-day-prices forecasting problem in the Colombian market, measured in USD/MWh. The models include exogenous variables such as reservoir levels and load demand. Results show that a segmentation of the prices into three intervals, based on load demand behaviour, contribute to an important standard deviation reduction. Regarding the models under analysis, Takagi-Sugeno-Kang models and ARMAX models identified by means of a Kalman filter perform the best forecasting, with an error rate below 6%.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2024-05-02
dc.format.extent7 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0218
dc.identifier.eissn1751-8695
dc.identifier.issn1751-8687
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0218
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/79739
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000272169100002
dc.information.autorucIngeniería;Cipriano A;S/I;99102
dc.issue.numero11
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido parcial
dc.pagina.final986
dc.pagina.inicio980
dc.publisherINST ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY-IET
dc.revistaIET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subject.ods07 Affordable and Clean Energy
dc.subject.odspa07 Energía asequible y no contaminante
dc.titleShort-term forecasting of electricity prices in the Colombian electricity market
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen3
sipa.codpersvinculados99102
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.indexScopus
sipa.trazabilidadCarga SIPA;09-01-2024
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