COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March–August 2020
| dc.contributor.author | Undurraga Fourcade, Eduardo Andrés | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chowell, Gerardo | |
| dc.contributor.author | Mizumoto, Kenji | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-05T11:55:55Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-03-05T11:55:55Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2021-02-07T01:06:35Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | Abstract Background Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different demographic groups. Here we estimate the real-time delay-adjusted case fatality rate across nine age groups by gender in Chile, the country with the highest testing rate for COVID-19 in Latin America. Methods We used a publicly available real-time daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the Ministry of Health in Chile from the beginning of the epidemic in March through August 31, 2020. We used a robust likelihood function and a delay distribution to estimate real-time delay-adjusted case-fatality risk and estimate model parameters using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in a Bayesian framework. Results As of August 31, 2020, our estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) for men and women are 4.16% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4.09–4.24%] and 3.26% (95% CrI: 3.19–3.34%), respectively, while the overall estimate is 3.72% (95% CrI: 3.67–3.78%). Seniors aged 80 years and over have an adjusted CFR of 56.82% (95% CrI: 55.25–58.34%) for men and 41.10% (95% CrI: 40.02–42.26%) for women. Results showed a peak in estimated CFR during the June peak of the epidemic. The peak possibly reflects insufficient laboratory capacity, as illustrated by high test positivity rates (33% positive 7-day average nationally in June), which may have resulted in lower reporting rates. Conclusions Severity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile suggest that male seniors, especially among those aged ≥ 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the pandemic, a finding consistent with other regions. The ongoing pandemic is imposing a high death toll in South America, and Chile has one of the highest reported mortality rates globally thus far. These real-time estimates may help inform public health officials' decisions in the region and underscore the need to implement more effective measures to ameliorate fatality. | |
| dc.format.extent | 11 páginas | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Infectious Diseases of Poverty. 2021 Feb 03;10(1):11 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1186/s40249-020-00785-1 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00785-1 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/52684 | |
| dc.issue.numero | No. 11 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.nota.acceso | Contenido completo | |
| dc.revista | Infectious Diseases of Poverty | es_ES |
| dc.rights | acceso abierto | |
| dc.rights.holder | The Author(s) | |
| dc.subject | COVID-19 | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Chile | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Death risk by age group | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Time-delay adjusted case fatality rate | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Latin America | es_ES |
| dc.subject.ddc | 616.2414 | |
| dc.subject.dewey | Medicina y salud | es_ES |
| dc.title | COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March–August 2020 | es_ES |
| dc.type | artículo | |
| dc.volumen | Vol. 10 | |
| sipa.codpersvinculados | 12868 |