Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities

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dc.article.number3718
dc.catalogadorgjm
dc.contributor.authorLeón, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorWinckler, Patricio
dc.contributor.authorVicuña del Río, María Magdalena
dc.contributor.authorGuzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés
dc.contributor.authorLarraguibel, Cristian
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-10T14:23:25Z
dc.date.available2024-01-10T14:23:25Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractThis study reviews the degree to which land-use planning addresses climate change adaptation in Chilean Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ). We first select 12 of the country’s most exposed coastal municipalities using a Municipal Exposure Index (MEI). Then, we conduct a content analysis of the communal regulatory plans (CRPs) using a “presumed exposure analysis”, which assumes that the inventory of assets within LECZ, according to the 2017 census, is a proxy of the exposure. Then, we conduct a more refined “hazard exposure analysis” by comparing changes in flooding levels between a historical period (1985–2004) and the RCP8.5 scenario (2026–2045). Using the latter approach, we show that flooding could affect large portions of the municipalities’ housing areas (3.7%), critical facilities (14.6%), and wetlands (22.7%) in the period 2026–2045. In the presumed exposure analysis, these percentages rise to 7.5%, 23.9%, and 24.9%, respectively. We find that CRPs also allow for a densification of exposed residential areas, whose density would increase by 9.2 times, on average, between the historical period and the RCP8.5 scenario. Additionally, only four municipalities define floodable zones as “risk areas”. Lastly, the difficulty in updating CRPs and their antiquity −21.25 years old on average could explain their ineffectiveness in implementing climate change adaptation strategies.
dc.description.funderCIGIDEN
dc.description.funderResearch Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management
dc.description.funderFondecyt
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2024-06-10
dc.format.extent21 páginas
dc.fuente.origenScopus
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su15043718
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.scopusidSCOPUS_ID:85149231722
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/su15043718
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/80095
dc.information.autorucInstituto de Estudios Urbanos y Territoriales; Vicuña del Río, María Magdalena; 0000-0002-9476-396X; 94092
dc.information.autorucInstituto de Estudios Urbanos y Territoriales; Guzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés; 000-0002-1026-0872; 1093165
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido completo
dc.revistaSustainability
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectCoastal cities
dc.subjectCoastal flooding
dc.subjectUrban planning
dc.titleAssessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen15
sipa.codpersvinculados94092
sipa.codpersvinculados1093165
sipa.indexScopus
sipa.trazabilidadCarga SIPA;09-01-2024
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