Agricultural and Forestry Land and Labor Use under Long-Term Climate Change in Chile

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dc.article.number305
dc.catalogadoraba
dc.contributor.authorMelo Contreras, Óscar
dc.contributor.authorFoster Bonnette, William
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-10T13:33:10Z
dc.date.available2023-07-10T13:33:10Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThe appropriate design of land-use and rural employment policies depends upon the anticipated performance of the farm sector in the context of expected climate changes, especially with respect to land allocations to potential activities. Concerns over the possible net benefits of land-use changes are particularly acute in lower- and middle-income countries, where agriculture tends to be important in employment, income generation and foreign-exchange earnings. This paper presents an analysis of the expected impacts on land use in Chile of projected climate-change scenarios in 2040 and 2070. We developed a farmland allocation model with associated labor employment at the municipal level driven by expected relative net incomes per hectare, constructed from local average per-hectare yields, regional average output prices and per-hectare production cost estimates. The sensitivities of cropland allocations to relative net-income changes were estimated using historical land allocations at the municipal level derived from the last two Chilean Agricultural Censuses. The results show that the impacts of climate changes will be mitigated by land-use adaptation, the main export-earning crops tending to move south; in aggregate, agricultural employment will decrease in all the climate-change scenarios; forestry and agriculture would likely suffer a loss in net-income generation under severe climate-change scenarios.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2023/07/11
dc.fuente.origenORCID
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/atmos12030305
dc.identifier.eissn2073-4433
dc.identifier.urihttp://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030305
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/74114
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Melo Contreras, Óscar; 0000-0002-9136-5413; 77463
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Foster Bonnette, William; S/I; 100480
dc.issue.numero3
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido completo
dc.pagina.final17
dc.pagina.inicio1
dc.revistaAtmospherees_ES
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.rights.licenseAtribución 4.0 Internacional (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectClimate changees_ES
dc.subjectAdaptationes_ES
dc.subjectLand-use modelinges_ES
dc.subjectFarm net incomeses_ES
dc.subjectLand–water–food nexuses_ES
dc.subject.ddc600
dc.subject.deweyTecnologíaes_ES
dc.titleAgricultural and Forestry Land and Labor Use under Long-Term Climate Change in Chile
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen12
sipa.codpersvinculados77463
sipa.codpersvinculados100480
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