Epidemics malaria dynamics in Eastern Africa highlands: the role of climate change and human population growth.

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dc.catalogadoryvc
dc.contributor.authorMaurin Krsulovic, Felipe Augusto
dc.contributor.authorMoulton, Timothy Peter
dc.contributor.authorLima Arce, Mauricio
dc.contributor.authorJaksic Andrade, Fabián
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-19T02:34:21Z
dc.date.available2023-11-19T02:34:21Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractDuring the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2023-11-19
dc.fuente.origenPREI
dc.identifier.doi10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
dc.identifier.issn2575-3789
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/75347
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Ciencias Biológicas ; Lima Arce, Mauricio ; S/I ; 96853
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Ciencias Biológicas ; Jaksic Andrade, Fabián ; 0000-0003-0098-0291 ; 99787
dc.issue.numero1
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido completo
dc.pagina.final30
dc.pagina.inicio23
dc.revistaEcology and Evolutionary Biology
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.subjectMalaria Dynamics
dc.subjectClimate
dc.subjectHIV
dc.subjectPopulation Size
dc.subject.ddc620
dc.subject.deweyIngenieríaes_ES
dc.titleEpidemics malaria dynamics in Eastern Africa highlands: the role of climate change and human population growth.
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen6
sipa.codpersvinculados96853
sipa.codpersvinculados99787
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