Past trends and future projections of palliative care needs in Chile: analysis of routinely available death registry and population data

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dc.article.number350
dc.catalogadorvdr
dc.contributor.authorLéniz Martelli, Javiera
dc.contributor.authorDomínguez, Angélica
dc.contributor.authorBone, Anna E.
dc.contributor.authorEtkind, Simon
dc.contributor.authorPérez Cruz, Pedro
dc.contributor.authorSleeman, Katherine E.
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-11T19:43:43Z
dc.date.available2024-09-11T19:43:43Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.date.updated2024-09-08T00:05:23Z
dc.description.abstractThe number of people with palliative care needs is projected to increase globally. Chile has recently introduced legislation for universal access to palliative care services for patients with severe and terminal illnesses, including non-cancer conditions. We aimed to estimate the number of people afected by serious health-related suf‑fering and need for palliative care in Chile to 2050. We used data on all deaths registered in Chile between 1997-2019 and population estimates for 1997–2050. We used Poisson regression to model past trends in causes of death adjusted by age, sex and population estimates, to project the number of deaths for each cause from 2021 to 2050. We applied the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief weights to these projections to identify decedents and non-decedents with palliative care needs. Population palliative care needs in Chile are projected to increase from 117 (95% CI 114 to 120) thousand people in 2021 to 209 (95% CI 198 to 223) thousand people in 2050, a 79% increase (IRR 1.79; 95% CI 1.78–1.80). This increase will be driven by non-cancer conditions, particularly dementia (IRR 2.9, 95% CI 2.85–2.95) and cardiovascular conditions (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.83–1.89). By 2050, 50% of those estimated to need palliative care will be non-decedents (not expected to die within a year). Chile will experience a large increase in palliative care needs, particularly for people with dementia and other non-cancer conditions. Improved availability of high-quality services, expanded clinician training and new sustainable models of care are urgently required to ensure universal access to palliative care. We aimed to estimate the number of people affected by serious health-related suffering and need for palliative care in Chile to 2050.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2024-09-12
dc.fuente.origenAutoarchivo
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12916-024-03570-1
dc.identifier.eissn1741-7015
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-024-03570-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/87848
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Medicina; Léniz Martelli, Javiera; 0000-0002-9315-4871; 16027
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Medicina; Domínguez, Angélica; 0000-0001-7477-7574; 131798
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Medicina; Pérez Cruz, Pedro; 0000-0001-6265-6919; 4140
dc.issue.numero1
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido completo
dc.pagina.final9
dc.pagina.inicio1
dc.revistaBMC Medicine
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.subjectPalliative care needs
dc.subjectProjections
dc.subjectPopulation estimations
dc.subjectSerious health-related sufering
dc.subject.ddc610
dc.subject.deweyMedicina y saludes_ES
dc.subject.ods03 Good health and well-being
dc.subject.odspa03 Salud y bienestar
dc.titlePast trends and future projections of palliative care needs in Chile: analysis of routinely available death registry and population data
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen22
sipa.codpersvinculados16027
sipa.codpersvinculados131798
sipa.codpersvinculados4140
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