Heat beyond percentiles: exploring preterm birth risks in Santiago, Chile (1991–2019)

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dc.article.number5
dc.catalogadorjlo
dc.contributor.authorBlanco, Estela
dc.contributor.authorConejeros Pavéz, José Daniel Hernan
dc.contributor.authorGonzález-Reyes, Álvaro
dc.contributor.authorRubilar, Paola
dc.contributor.authorSarricolea, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Pamela
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-12T15:57:13Z
dc.date.available2026-01-12T15:57:13Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.description.abstractObjectiveEvaluate the relationship between extreme heat in the week and month before delivery and risk of preterm birth (< 37 weeks’ gestation) using secondary data from Santiago, Chile.MethodsWe conducted a population-based cohort design using secondary information from birth records (1991–2019) and limited analysis to births in spring/summer months (n = 957,734). Temperature percentiles and the excess heat factor (EHF) were calculated for each of the 33 urban municipalities in Santiago using historical data. We derived 15 distinct heatwave metrics by combining three durations (2, 3, and 4 consecutive days) with five temperature thresholds: temperatures > 30 °C, the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and EHF. For each municipality, exposure (Yes or No) was assigned for each of these metrics in the week and month prior to delivery. We estimated Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for known confounders.ResultsPreterm birth occurred in 6% of births. There was spatial variability in extreme temperatures for the municipalities. Exposure to most heat wave metrics (≥ 2, ≥ 3, ≥ 4 days > 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile), did not relate to increased risk of preterm birth. Exposure to EHF for ≥ 2, ≥ 3, ≥ 4 days was associated with 1.02 (95% CI 1.00–1.04), 1.03 (95% CI 1.01–1.04), and 1.03 (95% CI 1.02–1.05), respectively. Exposure to ≥ 2, ≥ 3, ≥ 4 days of temperatures > 30 °C were associated with decreased hazards.ConclusionWe found evidence of increased risk of preterm birth, but only when evaluating exposure using EHF, a metric that considers acclimatization. Our results highlight the importance of understanding regional impacts of climate change on child health.
dc.format.extent13 páginas
dc.fuente.origenORCID
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00420-025-02196-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-025-02196-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/107640
dc.information.autorucActividades Universitarias-Dri; Blanco, Estela; S/I; 134957
dc.information.autorucInstituto de Sociología; Conejeros Pavéz, José Daniel Hernan; S/I; 222324
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido parcial
dc.revistaInternational Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectExtreme temperature
dc.subjectPerinatal health
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectPregnancy
dc.subject.ddc300
dc.titleHeat beyond percentiles: exploring preterm birth risks in Santiago, Chile (1991–2019)
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen99
sipa.codpersvinculados134957
sipa.codpersvinculados222324
sipa.trazabilidadORCID;2026-01-05
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