The climate of democracy: effects of exposure to warmer temperatures on electoral outcomes in Chile
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Date
2023
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Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures by the early 2030s, exacerbating regional climate shifts and extreme weather events beyond initial forecasts. This paper explores the nexus between cumulative exposure to warmer temperature shocks and voting behaviors in Chilean national and local elections. Drawing on a dataset spanning 1988 to 2021 and employing panel regression with location and time-fixed effects, I uncover nuanced electoral responses to temperature fluctuations. Results indicate a positive relationship between exposure to warmer temperatures in the year before an election and voter turnout, particularly in local elections, with minimal impact observed at the national level. Moreover, exposure to cumulative warmer temperatures correlates with increased support for left-wing and nontraditional candidates in local races. Heterogeneous analysis reveals that in populations with the least adaptive capacities, new entry votes go, in most cases, to support outsiders, i.e., the “punishment vote” comes from the population most vulnerable to climate shocks. Mechanisms underlying these findings include income reductions from climate shocks and altered perceptions of democratic efficacy in addressing climate challenges. This study contributes to understanding the political ramifications of climate change, particularly in developing democracies like Chile, and underscores the role of exposure to changing climatic conditions in shaping electoral dynamics.
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Tesis (Magíster en Economía)--Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2023
Keywords
Climate change, Voting behavior, Exposure to climatic events, Electoral dynamics, Chile