Economic value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: Review of ex-ante assessments and recommendations for future research

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorMeza, Francisco J.
dc.contributor.authorHansen, James W.
dc.contributor.authorOsgood, Daniel
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-10T13:47:49Z
dc.date.available2024-01-10T13:47:49Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.description.abstractAdvanced information in the form of seasonal climate forecasts has the potential to improve farmers' decision making, leading to increases in farm profits. Interdisciplinary initiatives seeking to understand and exploit the potential benefits of seasonal forecasts for agriculture have produced a number of quantitative ex-ante assessments of the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts. The realism, robustness, and credibility of such assessments become increasingly important as efforts shift from basic research toward applied research and implementation. This paper surveys published evidence about the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture, characterizing the agricultural systems, approaches followed, and scales of analysis. The climate forecast valuation literature has contributed insights into the influence of forecast characteristics, risk attitudes, insurance, policy, and the scale of adoption on the value of forecasts. Key innovations in the more recent literature include explicit treatment of the uncertainty of forecast value estimates, incorporation of elicited management responses into bioeconomic modeling, and treatment of environmental impacts, in addition to financial outcomes of forecast response. It is argued that the picture of the value of seasonal forecasts for agriculture is still incomplete and often biased, in part because of significant gaps in published valuation research. Key gaps include sampling of a narrow range of farming systems and locations, incorporation of an overly restricted set of potential management responses, failure to consider forecast responses that could lead to "regime shifts," and failure to incorporate state-of-the-art developments in seasonal forecasting. This paper concludes with six recommendations to enhance the realism, robustness, and credibility of ex-ante valuation of seasonal climate forecasts.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2024-05-20
dc.format.extent18 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/2007JAMC1540.1
dc.identifier.eissn1558-8432
dc.identifier.issn1558-8424
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1540.1
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/79306
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000256574500001
dc.information.autorucAgronomía e Ing. Forestal;Meza F;S/I;86534
dc.issue.numero5
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido parcial
dc.pagina.final1286
dc.pagina.inicio1269
dc.publisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
dc.revistaJOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectSOUTHERN-OSCILLATION INFORMATION
dc.subjectDAIRY FARM MODEL
dc.subjectCROP MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectPOTENTIAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectDECISION-MAKING
dc.subjectRISK-MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectENSO PHASE
dc.subjectPREDICTION
dc.subjectIMPACT
dc.subjectCORN
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titleEconomic value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: Review of ex-ante assessments and recommendations for future research
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen47
sipa.codpersvinculados86534
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadCarga SIPA;09-01-2024
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Economic value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture - Review of ex-ante assessments and recommendations for future research.pdf
Size:
3.2 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
Collections
Artículos de revistas