Seismic risk assessment of spatially distributed electric power systems
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Date
2017
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
National Information Centre of Earthquake Engineering
Abstract
The adequate performance of critical infrastructure such as transportation, telecommunications, healthcare, and electric power systems are essential to the resilience of communities after major earthquakes. However, assessing the seismic risk of networks is more complex than for individual structures since the performance of systems depend on several spatially distributed intensity measures and the interdependence amongst the system’s components. A convenient and probabilistically consistent way of performing the assessment is by the use of a stochastically-generated earthquake catalogue. This paper computes the seismic risk of electric power systems and its methodology can be summarized in three steps: (i) sample hazard-consistent seismic scenarios; (ii) compute the overall performance of the system for each scenario; and (iii) estimate the seismic risk from the performances of all earthquake scenarios. The resulting risk is represented by the commonly used expected annual service loss of the system, but also by the complete probability distribution of accumulated deficit of electric service. The methodology is applied to the electric network in north Chile, and is used to estimate the Energy Not Supplied (ENS) and the Energy Index of Unreliability (EIU) due to seismic events. Finally, an evaluation of the effect that different sampling methods have on the expected values and uncertainty of results is presented.
Description
Keywords
Seismic risk, Distributed infrastructure systems, Networks, Electric power systems, Fragility curves