The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: Evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

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dc.article.number05002
dc.catalogadorgjm
dc.contributor.authorAsahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier
dc.contributor.authorUndurraga Fourcade, Eduardo Andrés
dc.contributor.authorValdés, Rodrigo O.
dc.contributor.authorWagner, Rodrigo
dc.contributor.otherCEDEUS (Chile)
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-24T16:42:44Z
dc.date.available2024-09-24T16:42:44Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractBackground: Governments worldwide have implemented large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing or school closures, to prevent and control the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic. These strategies, implemented with varying stringency, have imposed substantial social and economic costs to society. As some countries begin to reopen and ease mobility restrictions, lockdowns in smaller geographic areas are increasingly considered an attractive policy intervention to mitigate societal costs while controlling epidemic growth. Nevertheless, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support these decisions. Methods: Drawing from a rich data set of localized lockdowns in Chile, we used econometric methods to measure the reduction in local economic activity from lockdowns when applied to smaller or larger geographical areas. We measured economic activity by tax collection at the municipality-level. Results: Our results show that lockdowns were associated with a 10%-15% drop in local economic activity, which is twice the reduction in local economic activity suffered by municipalities that were not under lockdown. A three-to-four-month lockdown had a similar effect on economic activity than a year of the 2009 great recession. We found costs are proportional to the population under lockdown, without differences when lockdowns were measured at the municipality or citywide levels. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that localized lockdowns have a large effect on local economic activity, but these effects are proportional to the population under lockdown. Our results suggest that epidemiological criteria should guide decisions about the optimal size of lockdown areas since the proportional impact of lockdowns on the economy seems to be unchanged by scale.
dc.description.funderAgencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo
dc.description.funderFondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico (FONDECYT)
dc.description.funderANID Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigacion en Areas Prioritarias (FONDAP)
dc.description.funderResearch Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), ANID FONDAP
dc.description.funderEU
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2024-09-24
dc.format.extent11 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.7189/jogh.11.05002
dc.identifier.eissn2047-2986
dc.identifier.issn2047-2978
dc.identifier.pubmedidMEDLINE:33643635
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.11.05002
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/87929
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000692157500002
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Gobierno; Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier; 0000-0001-7838-4647; 4661
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Gobierno; Undurraga Fourcade, Eduardo Andrés; 0000-0002-4425-1253; 12868
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Gobierno; Valdés, Rodrigo O.; S/I; 1062127
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido completo
dc.revistaJournal of Global Health
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.rights.licenseCC BY 4.0 Attribution 4.0 International Deed
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectNonpharmaceutical interventions
dc.subjectDemand
dc.subject.ddc610
dc.subject.deweyMedicina y saludes_ES
dc.subject.ods08 Decent work and economic growth
dc.subject.odspa08 Trabajo decente y crecimiento económico
dc.titleThe effect of COVID-19 on the economy: Evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen11
sipa.codpersvinculados4661
sipa.codpersvinculados12868
sipa.codpersvinculados1062127
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;18-03-2022
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