Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of a seismic risk model for road networks

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dc.catalogadoraba
dc.contributor.authorAllen, Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorChamorro Giné, Marcela Alondra
dc.contributor.authorPoulos, Alan
dc.contributor.authorCastro, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorLlera Martin, Juan Carlos de la
dc.contributor.authorEchaveguren, Tomas
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-14T18:51:53Z
dc.date.available2023-03-14T18:51:53Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractNatural hazards may cause significant disruptions to road infrastructure, subsequently affecting road agencies, users, and productive activities. Despite the existence of infrastructure fragilities to seismic hazard and some operational consequences on network mobility, previous research has not modeled risk in terms of traffic disruptions and consequent travel time delays in subduction environments, analyzing the sensitivity to model parameters and quantified model uncertainty. This study proposes a risk framework to evaluate operational consequences in interurban road networks exposed to seismic hazard using travel time delays and propagate uncertainty in the model. Risk values are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations, and uncertainty is propagated using a polynomial chaos expansion meta-model. The framework was applied to a very critical interurban network in central Chile. Results demonstrate that the parameters that most significantly influence risk are fragility, loss of road capacity, and traffic volume.
dc.description.funderNational Research and Development Agency (ANID)
dc.description.funderFONDECYT
dc.description.funderResearch Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management
dc.description.funderHighways Department of the Chilean Ministry of Public Works
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2023-03-14
dc.format.extent15 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/mice.12748
dc.identifier.eissn1467-8667
dc.identifier.issn1093-9687
dc.identifier.scopusidSCOPUS_ID:85112144640
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12748
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/66577
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000683302500001
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Chamorro Gine Marcela Alondra; 0000-0001-9466-6468; 14569
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; De La Llera Martin Juan Carlos; 0000-0002-9064-0938; 53086
dc.issue.numero4
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido parcial
dc.publisherWILEY
dc.revistaComputer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION NETWORK
dc.subjectEARTHQUAKE
dc.subjectPERFORMANCE
dc.subjectCAPACITY
dc.subjectHAZARD
dc.subject.ddc620
dc.subject.deweyIngenieríaes_ES
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.titleSensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of a seismic risk model for road networks
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen37
sipa.codpersvinculados14569
sipa.codpersvinculados53086
sipa.indexWoS
sipa.indexSCOPUS
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