3.13 Instituto de Economía

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Browsing 3.13 Instituto de Economía by Author "Akin, Sumeyra"

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    Does the way democracy is obtained matter for economic development? : estimating the effect of transition to democracy with a coup
    (2021) Mejía Barahona, Emanuel José; González Ramírez, Felipe Andrés; Vicondoa Ramos, Alejandro Martín; Akin, Sumeyra; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Economía
    This paper studies the effects of transition to democracy with a coup conditional on the occurrence of a transition to democracy. Additionally, the study by Meyersson (2016) is extended by analyzing the effects of successful coups conditional on an attempted coup. Finally, a case study is carried out for the coup at Honduras in 2009. The results show that those countries that transition to democracy with a coup achieve a GDP per capita growth rate 1/3 lower in the next 10 years than those who do it without this type of event. Regarding the effects of successful coups, these are differentiated, when they overthrow an autocratic regime the effect is positive, while when they overthrow a democratic regime their effect is negative. The results for the case study are consistent with the last one, the impact of the coup at Honduras in 2009 on GDP per capita growth rate was negative although minor, which can be explained by the nature of said event. The results suggest that democracy and the way in which it is obtained matters; however, its effect on long-term development continues to be positive.
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    El impacto de la crisis sociopolítica nicaragüense de 2018 sobre el crecimiento del total de activos del sector bancario
    (2020) Bejarano Chavarría, Christian Alexander; Vicondoa Ramos, Alejandro Martín; González Ramírez, Felipe Andrés; Akin, Sumeyra; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Economía
    La Crisis Sociopolítica en Nicaragua de 2018 fue un conflicto interno que derivó en cerca de 250 fallecidos, más de 2,200 lesionados e impactó de forma severa la economía nicaragüense, este documento de investigación se enfoca en los efectos que tuvo dicho conflicto sobre el crecimiento del total de activos del sector bancario. El resultado principal es que la Crisis Sociopolítica provocó que los bancos nicaragüenses tuviesen en promedio una pérdida de 31.8 por ciento de sus activos en el período de marzo 2018 a febrero 2020, además, se presenta evidencia de que el principal mecanismo que explica este resultado es la ocurrencia de corridas bancarias, es decir, el retiro masivo de depósitos por parte del público. El aporte de este documento a la literatura es ofrecer evidencia empírica de un efecto causal entre los conflictos y el sector bancario, debido a que dicha literatura en particular es escasa y carece de estrategias de identificación.
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    Spillovers of US uncertainty shocks to Nicaragua
    (2021) Largaespada Fernández, Rolando Antonio; Vicondoa Ramos, Alejandro Martín; Akin, Sumeyra; González Ramírez, Felipe Andrés; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Economía
    Given that Nicaragua is an economy closely linked to that of the United States, uncertainty shocks in the United States could be relevant and transmitted to the Nicaraguan economy. Thus, this work aims to identify the effects of uncertainty shocks in the US on prices and Nicaraguan economic activity through a VAR model, finding slight decreases in prices and a significant and persistent contraction for economic activity. Then, when conducting a counterfactual analysis on potential transmission mechanisms, the decrease in prices is transmitted through remittances and the evolution of international prices. Meanwhile, credit to the private sector represents an important channel through which the effects are transmitted to economic activity. Thus, policies aimed at mitigating credit frictions can reduce the magnitude of the negative effect on economic activity.