Browsing by Author "Tilton, John E."
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- ItemAssessing the long-run availability of copper(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2007) Tilton, John E.; Lagos, GustavoThis study questions recent research [Gordon, R.B., Bertram, M., Graedel, T.E., 2006. Metal stocks and sustainability. Proc. Natl. Acad. USA 103(5), 1209-1214] that concludes that the world is likely to experience a growing scarcity of copper over this century. In particular, it focuses on the methodology used in this work that assumes the usable copper contained in the earth is a fixed amount. While the fixed-stock paradigm is intuitively appealing-after all the earth is finite so the amount of any commodity it contains must also be finite-and used with some frequency by others as well to assess long-run trends in the availability of non-renewable mineral resources, it is flawed and can lead to overly pessimistic as well as overly optimistic expectations. A more useful and appropriate approach, the opportunity-cost paradigm, assesses long-run trends in availability by real prices or alternative measures of what society has to give up or sacrifice to obtain another ton of copper or barrel of oil. This approach indicates that copper could conceivably become less scarce by the end of the century. Whether this will be the case or whether copper will be more scarce, however, depends on a number of factors, including the future course of technological change, whose influence no one can predict with any degree of certainty decades in advance. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- ItemAssessing the market power of mineral commodity producers(2018) Tilton, John E.
- ItemCopper recycling and scrap availability(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2007) Gomez, Fernando; Guzman, Juan Ignacio; Tilton, John E.According to existing estimates, available old copper scrap has more than tripled over the past 40 years. Secondary production (that is, copper produced from recycling old scrap), however, has only doubled. Indeed, over the past 10 years, while copper consumption and primary production have continued to expand briskly, while available old scrap has increased by over 35%, secondary production has actually stagnated.
- ItemDepletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources(INT ASSOC ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2009) Aguilera, Roberto F.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Lagos, Gustavo C. C.; Tilton, John E.This study assesses the threat that depletion poses to the availability of petroleum resources. It does so by estimating cumulative availability curves for conventional petroleum (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids) and for three unconventional sources of liquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). The analysis extends the important stud), conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (2000) on this topic by taking account of (1) conventional petroleum resources from provinces not assessed by the Survey or other organizations, (2) future reserve growth, (3) unconventional sources of liquids, and (4) production costs.
- ItemDerivación de estrategia óptima global de leyes de corte utilizando control óptimo(2015) Uhlmann Mellafe, Jürgen Christian; Guzmán Barros, Juan Ignacio; Tilton, John E.; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de IngenieríaEn esta tesis se determina una política de leyes de corte óptima global dentro de un espacio de soluciones no acotado por las decisiones tomadas en las etapas de la planificación minera relacionadas, tal como lo hace la teoría tradicional de leyes de corte al optimizarla separadamente de la estrategia de producción. Elaboramos y empleamos un algoritmo basado en control óptimo para derivar matemáticamente un sistema de ecuaciones Funcional-Integral-Diferencial, el cual determina endógenamente la estrategia de consumo de reservas para una mina a rajo abierto dividida en fases, esto es dónde (con qué secuenciamiento), cuánto (a qué tasa de extracción) y cómo (con qué ley de corte) extraer desde cada fase. Las consecuencias para la mina son un mayor VPN y una estrategia operacional distinta a la obtenida con la teoría tradicional. En particular, se muestra el valor generado por realizar periodos de traslape entre fases de la manera óptima, utilizando leyes de corte y ritmos de extracción distintos a los que se utilizarían en una operación individual de fases, lo que permite adelantar el procesamiento del material de altas leyes y combinarlo de manera de enviar una menor porción de lastre desde las fases con mayores leyes.
- ItemGlobal climate policy and the polluter pays principle: A different perspective(2016) Tilton, John E.
- ItemInvestor demand and spot commodity prices(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2011) Tilton, John E.; Humphreys, David; Radetzki, MarianThe on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?
- ItemLong-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2011) Svedberg, Peter; Tilton, John E.In his recent article on measuring the long-term trends in the real prices of primary commodities, Cuddington (2010) extends in several important respects our earlier efforts (Svedberg and Tilton, 2006) to correct real commodity price trends for biases in the Consumer Price Index and other deflators. First, he argues for a log-linear relationship between prices and time. Second, he proposes a simple and quick method for obtaining corrected price trends from the published but uncorrected estimates. Finally, he illustrates, for the case of copper and presumably for many other commodities as well, the difficulties of obtaining real price trends significantly different from zero when the log values of the price data contain a unit root, requiring the use of difference stationary models.
- ItemMaterial efficiency: An economic perspective(ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2012) Soderholm, Patrik; Tilton, John E.This article presents an economic perspective of material efficiency, and discusses the role of public policy in providing market incentives for a more efficient use of materials. In doing so. it comments on the engineering approach to material efficiency presented by Allwood et al. (2011) in an earlier issue of Resources, Conservation and Recycling. We argue that concerns over potential future natural resource scarcities do not represent a strong motive for introducing policies to foster greater material efficiency but that various environmental externalities and information failures in the relevant material markets do. Moreover, in such instances policy makers should opt for policy measures that target the relevant market failures (e.g., environmental damages) as closely as possible. This normally means avoiding policies that directly encourage specific material efficiency options. Policy measures that address particular environmental problems and information externalities will enhance material efficiency in a more effective manner. This is because ex ante it is difficult for policy makers to know in what ways and by how much to alter material production and use. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- ItemMinera Gabriela Mistral : ¿una buena opción de inversión para Chile? : análisis ex-ante y ex-post(2011) Pino Acevedo, Francisca Andrea; Lagos, Gustavo; Tilton, John E.; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de IngenieríaLas técnicas tradicionales utilizadas para evaluar nuevos proyectos mineros se basan en la metodología de Flujos de Caja Descontados. Sin embargo, este enfoque no toma en cuenta el hecho de que las decisiones pueden ser tomadas de forma dinámica, una vez que las incertidumbres relevantes se han despejado parcialmente. Estas consideraciones necesariamente cambian el valor de un proyecto.
- ItemMining and corruption(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2007) Petermann, Andrea; Guzman, Juan Ignacio; Tilton, John E.This study examines the links between mineral dependency and corruption. Specifically, it develops a cross-section econometric model that estimates the effects of per capita income, fuel exports, non-fuel exports, and average per unit value of mineral exports on corruption.
- ItemOur mental models of mineral depletion - and why they matter(2019) Tilton, John E.
- ItemPublic policy and future mineral supplies(2018) Tilton, John E.; Crowson, Phillip C. F.; DeYoung Jr., John H.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Ericsson, Magnus; Guzmán Barros, Juan Ignacio; Humphreys, David; Lagos, Gustavo; Maxwell, Philip; Radetzki, Marian
- ItemSubglobal Climate Agreements and Energy-intensive Activities : An Evaluation of Carbon Leakage in the Copper Industry(2013) Lanz, B.; Rutherford, T.; Tilton, John E.
- ItemThe boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2008) Radetzki, Marian; Eggert, Roderick G.; Lagos, Gustavo; Lima, Marcos; Tilton, John E.The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a "supercycle" caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- ItemThe Hubbert peak model and assessing the threat of mineral depletion(2018) Tilton, John E.
- ItemThe relationship between spot and futures prices: an empirical analysis(2014) Gulley, A.; Tilton, John E.
- ItemThe terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers(2013) Tilton, John E.
- ItemUsing exploration expenditures to assess the climate for mineral investment(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2008) Jara, J. Joaquin; Lagos, Gustavo; Tilton, John E.Countries that rely oil private investors to find and exploit their mineral resources need reliable indicators of their investment attractiveness. This study explores the use of exploration expenditures for this purpose, focusing primarily on Chile.
- ItemUsing the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2009) Yaksic, Andres; Tilton, John E.The cumulative availability curve shows the quantities of a mineral commodity that can be recovered under current conditions from existing resources at various prices. The future availability of a mineral commodity depends on the shape of its cumulative availability curve (determined by geologic considerations, such as the nature and incidence of the available mineral deposits), the speed at which society moves up the curve (determined by future demand and the extent to which this demand is satisfied by recycling), and shifts in the curve (determined by cost-reducing technological change and other factors). While the shape of the curve for any given mineral commodity may or may not be known, it is knowable since the geologic processes responsible for the curve's shape took place many years ago. In contrast, the factors governing how fast society moves up the curve and how the curve shifts over time are not only unknown but also unknowable.