Browsing by Author "Radetzki, Marian"
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- ItemInvestor demand and spot commodity prices(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2011) Tilton, John E.; Humphreys, David; Radetzki, MarianThe on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?
- ItemPublic policy and future mineral supplies(2018) Tilton, John E.; Crowson, Phillip C. F.; DeYoung Jr., John H.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Ericsson, Magnus; Guzmán Barros, Juan Ignacio; Humphreys, David; Lagos, Gustavo; Maxwell, Philip; Radetzki, Marian
- ItemThe boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2008) Radetzki, Marian; Eggert, Roderick G.; Lagos, Gustavo; Lima, Marcos; Tilton, John E.The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a "supercycle" caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.