Browsing by Author "Quense, Jorge"

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    Applicability of spatial prediction models for landslide susceptibility in land-use zoning instruments: a guideline in a coastal settlement in South-Central Chile
    (TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2021) Lopez, Pablo; Quense, Jorge; Henriquez, Cristian; Martinez, Carolina
    Landslide hazard is usually incorporated into land-use planning as susceptibility zoning. Multiple-variable models have been widely used for susceptibility zoning due to their advantage to use different performance techniques to improve their prediction capacity. In Chile, the incorporation of landslide hazard into land-use planning instruments lacks a frame of reference that defines the susceptibility zoning and potential methodologies to be used. To overcome this lack of reference, this study assessed the applicability of Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) models in the establishment of susceptibility zoning guidelines. The application of both models identified the areas-prone to landslides in enough detail for a scale k-fold cross-validation, which indicated a slight advantage of the GAM model over the GLM model in susceptibility prediction capacity. The resulting zoning areas for low, moderate, high and very high susceptibility were very similar for the GLM and GAM models.
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    Catastrophe zones by hydro-meteorological events in Chile and contributions for a climate risk index
    (PONTIFICA UNIV CATOLICA CHILE, INST GEOGRAFIA, 2016) Henriquez, Cristian; Aspee, Nicolle; Quense, Jorge
    It is estimated that changes in global weather patterns and natural dynamics can cause a high incidence of extreme events, and therefore increase risk levels. In this study, we review the major climatic and hydrometeorological disasters that have affected Chile between 1984 and 2013, based on ordinances that establish catastrophe zones (Law 16.282) for natural events such as, rainstorms, drought, frost, snowstorms, floods, and mass movements, caused by extreme temperature and rainfall. Information on exposure, vulnerability and resilience is integrated into a climate risk index at the municipal level. Based on the municipal results for Chile, those areas with increased climate risks are located along the central coast. We conclude that it is necessary to consider an adaptive rather than reactive approach to risk management, especially when coping with threats due to climate change.
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    Future land use conflicts: Comparing spatial scenarios for urban-regional planning
    (SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2022) Henriquez, Cristian; Morales, Mauricio; Quense, Jorge; Hidalgo, Rodrigo
    Latin America's intensive urbanization processes are triggering rapid peri-urban transformations and the expansion of cities. These include accelerated metropolization processes, urban sprawl, and the emergence of new conurbations. These changes parallel the expansion of highly profitable agricultural activities and plantations linked to international markets. This paper aims to analyze land use/cover changes between 1990 and 2050 in the Quillota Province, Valparaiso Region, Chile. Specific objectives considered (1) analyzing changes in land use/cover trajectories between 1990 and 2017, (2) simulating changes in land use/cover based on three scenarios of territorial planning to 2050 (trending, ecological planning, and spatial planning), and (3), identifying the areas most likely to be modified by urbanization and agricultural activity as a result of biodiversity loss in the study area. The Dyna-CLUE model implemented was complemented with GIS techniques for the analysis of land use/cover trajectories that allowed classifying and characterizing the most dynamic land uses/cover within the Quillota Province, such as urban land uses. The results of simulations to 2050 show a probable conurbation of medium-sized cities of Quillota-La Cruz-Calera, and future land use conflicts between peri urban-agricultural land use and plantation-natural conservation land use. The results suggest that it is essential to choose scenarios to ensure sustainable land use planning to control urban and peri-urban sprawl and protect areas of high natural value.
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    Water vulnerabilities mapping: a multi-criteria and multi-scale assessment in central Chile
    (IWA PUBLISHING, 2021) Paegelow, Martin; Quense, Jorge; Peltier, Anne; Henriquez Ruiz, Cristian; Le Goff, Lucie; Arenas Vasquez, Federico; Antoine, Jean Marc; CEDEUS (Chile)
    One of the major challenges that populations have to face is vulnerability to water: lack of water, flooding, pollution, hazard sensitivity and coping capacity. For the reason of economic, social and environmental inequalities, this paper focuses on water-related vulnerabilities in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago (RMS) in Chile. Our main objective is to understand, through mapping, the multiscalar logics of water vulnerability. This study is carried out at two scales: at the regional level (RMS), we proceed with open access municipal statistical data and maps, while at the local level, a more detailed analysis focussing on the Chacabuco Province is based on the same type of data but with either a higher spatial resolution (Census districts) or a spatially more intensive data processing in order to take into account intra-municipal differences. In this way, we put into perspective the discourse developed in the Chilean media and by the inhabitants of Chacabuco Province regarding the province as an environmental 'sacrifice zone' for the RMS. The vulnerability maps are carried out at different scales in a simple and reproducible way by multi-criteria evaluation (MCE). The results confirm the hypothesis of a sacrifice zone and show that high-resolution data and adequate data processing give, on average, lower vulnerability scores than using only statistical data on the municipal level. The results provide a cartographic decision support for stakeholders. Limitations of the study are discussed and required further research pointed out.