Browsing by Author "Peirlinck, Mathias"
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- ItemSex Differences in Drug-Induced Arrhythmogenesis(2021) Peirlinck, Mathias; Sahli Costabal, Francisco; Kuhl, EllenThe electrical activity in the heart varies significantly between men and women and results in a sex-specific response to drugs. Recent evidence suggests that women are more than twice as likely as men to develop drug-induced arrhythmia with potentially fatal consequences. Yet, the sex-specific differences in drug-induced arrhythmogenesis remain poorly understood. Here we integrate multiscale modeling and machine learning to gain mechanistic insight into the sex-specific origin of drug-induced cardiac arrhythmia at differing drug concentrations. To quantify critical drug concentrations in male and female hearts, we identify the most important ion channels that trigger male and female arrhythmogenesis, and create and train a sex-specific multi-fidelity arrhythmogenic risk classifier. Our study reveals that sex differences in ion channel activity, tissue conductivity, and heart dimensions trigger longer QT-intervals in women than in men. We quantify the critical drug concentration for dofetilide, a high risk drug, to be seven times lower for women than for men. Our results emphasize the importance of including sex as an independent biological variable in risk assessment during drug development. Acknowledging and understanding sex differences in drug safety evaluation is critical when developing novel therapeutic treatments on a personalized basis. The general trends of this study have significant implications on the development of safe and efficacious new drugs and the prescription of existing drugs in combination with other drugs.
- ItemVisualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19(2020) Peirlinck, Mathias; Linka, Kevin; Sahli Costabal, Francisco; Bhattacharya, Jay; Bendavid, Eran; Ioannidis, John P.A.; Kuhl, EllenUnderstanding the outbreak dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has important implications for successful containment and mitigation strategies. Recent studies suggest that the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a proxy for the number of asymptomatic cases, could be an order of magnitude larger than expected from the number of reported symptomatic cases. Knowing the precise prevalence and contagiousness of asymptomatic transmission is critical to estimate the overall dimension and pandemic potential of COVID-19. However, at this stage, the effect of the asymptomatic population, its size, and its outbreak dynamics remain largely unknown. Here we use reported symptomatic case data in conjunction with antibody seroprevalence studies, a mathematical epidemiology model, and a Bayesian framework to infer the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. Our model computes, in real time, the time-varying contact rate of the outbreak, and projects the temporal evolution and credible intervals of the effective reproduction number and the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and recovered populations. Our study quantifies the sensitivity of the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 to three parameters: the effective reproduction number, the ratio between the symptomatic and asymptomatic populations, and the infectious periods of both groups. For nine distinct locations, our model estimates the fraction of the population that has been infected and recovered by Jun 15, 2020 to 24.15% (95% CI: 20.48%-28.14%) for Heinsberg (NRW, Germany), 2.40% (95% CI: 2.09%-2.76%) for Ada County (ID, USA), 46.19% (95% CI: 45.81%-46.60%) for New York City (NY, USA), 11.26% (95% CI: 7.21%-16.03%) for Santa Clara County (CA, USA), 3.09% (95% CI: 2.27%-4.03%) for Denmark, 12.35% (95% CI: 10.03%-15.18%) for Geneva Canton (Switzerland), 5.24% (95% CI: 4.84%-5.70%) for the Netherlands, 1.53% (95% CI: 0.76%-2.62%) for Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), and 5.32% (95% CI: 4.77%-5.93%) for Belgium. Our method traces the initial outbreak date in Santa Clara County back to January 20, 2020 (95% CI: December 29, 2019–February 13, 2020). Our results could significantly change our understanding and management of the COVID-19 pandemic: A large asymptomatic population will make isolation, containment, and tracing of individual cases challenging. Instead, managing community transmission through increasing population awareness, promoting physical distancing, and encouraging behavioral changes could become more relevant.