Browsing by Author "Henriquez, Cristian"

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    Applicability of spatial prediction models for landslide susceptibility in land-use zoning instruments: a guideline in a coastal settlement in South-Central Chile
    (TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2021) Lopez, Pablo; Quense, Jorge; Henriquez, Cristian; Martinez, Carolina
    Landslide hazard is usually incorporated into land-use planning as susceptibility zoning. Multiple-variable models have been widely used for susceptibility zoning due to their advantage to use different performance techniques to improve their prediction capacity. In Chile, the incorporation of landslide hazard into land-use planning instruments lacks a frame of reference that defines the susceptibility zoning and potential methodologies to be used. To overcome this lack of reference, this study assessed the applicability of Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) models in the establishment of susceptibility zoning guidelines. The application of both models identified the areas-prone to landslides in enough detail for a scale k-fold cross-validation, which indicated a slight advantage of the GAM model over the GLM model in susceptibility prediction capacity. The resulting zoning areas for low, moderate, high and very high susceptibility were very similar for the GLM and GAM models.
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    Catastrophe zones by hydro-meteorological events in Chile and contributions for a climate risk index
    (PONTIFICA UNIV CATOLICA CHILE, INST GEOGRAFIA, 2016) Henriquez, Cristian; Aspee, Nicolle; Quense, Jorge
    It is estimated that changes in global weather patterns and natural dynamics can cause a high incidence of extreme events, and therefore increase risk levels. In this study, we review the major climatic and hydrometeorological disasters that have affected Chile between 1984 and 2013, based on ordinances that establish catastrophe zones (Law 16.282) for natural events such as, rainstorms, drought, frost, snowstorms, floods, and mass movements, caused by extreme temperature and rainfall. Information on exposure, vulnerability and resilience is integrated into a climate risk index at the municipal level. Based on the municipal results for Chile, those areas with increased climate risks are located along the central coast. We conclude that it is necessary to consider an adaptive rather than reactive approach to risk management, especially when coping with threats due to climate change.
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    Future land use conflicts: Comparing spatial scenarios for urban-regional planning
    (SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2022) Henriquez, Cristian; Morales, Mauricio; Quense, Jorge; Hidalgo, Rodrigo
    Latin America's intensive urbanization processes are triggering rapid peri-urban transformations and the expansion of cities. These include accelerated metropolization processes, urban sprawl, and the emergence of new conurbations. These changes parallel the expansion of highly profitable agricultural activities and plantations linked to international markets. This paper aims to analyze land use/cover changes between 1990 and 2050 in the Quillota Province, Valparaiso Region, Chile. Specific objectives considered (1) analyzing changes in land use/cover trajectories between 1990 and 2017, (2) simulating changes in land use/cover based on three scenarios of territorial planning to 2050 (trending, ecological planning, and spatial planning), and (3), identifying the areas most likely to be modified by urbanization and agricultural activity as a result of biodiversity loss in the study area. The Dyna-CLUE model implemented was complemented with GIS techniques for the analysis of land use/cover trajectories that allowed classifying and characterizing the most dynamic land uses/cover within the Quillota Province, such as urban land uses. The results of simulations to 2050 show a probable conurbation of medium-sized cities of Quillota-La Cruz-Calera, and future land use conflicts between peri urban-agricultural land use and plantation-natural conservation land use. The results suggest that it is essential to choose scenarios to ensure sustainable land use planning to control urban and peri-urban sprawl and protect areas of high natural value.
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    Monitoring and modeling the urban growth of two mid-sized Chilean cities
    (PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2006) Henriquez, Cristian; Azocar, Gerardo; Romero, Hugo
    Chile's economic development model changed drastically in 1973. Public policy liberalization ended and the market became the principal entity for regulating growth, including urban growth. The implementation of this new model resulted in unprecedented urban growth, markedly impacting the landscape. In mid-sized cities, this spatial growth has been especially significant. Two examples of such mid-sized cities are Chillan and Los Angeles, located in the Biobio Region, in the so-called Central Valley. This research analyzed the land use/cover change in Chillan and Los Angeles from 1978 to 1998, identified the patterns of urban growth and the fragmentation of the urban space, applying GIS and remote sensing tools. The main driving forces of the urban changes were analyzed and the model to predict the land use/cover changes was applied. Our results show the importance of monitoring and modeling rapid urban growth for attaining sustainable mid-sized cities in developing countries that are strongly dependent on export of natural resources. Monitoring and modeling could also help to avoid a repetition of the errors that produced the unsustainable growth characteristic of large Latin American cities. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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    Tendencias sociodemográficas y segregación socioespacial en Los Angeles, Chile.
    (2008) Azocar, Gerardo; Henriquez, Cristian; Valenzuela Sanhueza, Claudia; Romero Hugo