Browsing by Author "Dunn, Winston"
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- ItemAlcohol-associated liver disease in the United States is associated with severe forms of disease among young, females and Hispanics(2021) Singal, Ashwani K.; Arsalan, Arshad; Dunn, Winston; Arab, Juan P.; Wong, Robert J.; Kuo, Yong-Fang; Kamath, Patrick S.; Shah, Vijay H.Background Alcohol use and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) burden are increasing in young individuals. Aim To assess host factors associated with this burden. Methods National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), National Inpatient Sample (NIS), and United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) databases (2006-2016) were used to identify individuals with harmful alcohol use, ALD-related admissions, and ALD-related LT listings respectively. Results Of 15 981 subjects in NHANES database, weighted prevalence of harmful alcohol use was 17.7%, 29.3% in <35 years (G1) versus 16.9% in 35-64 years (G2) versus 5.1% in >= 65 years (G3). Alcohol use was about 11 and 4.7 folds higher in G1 and G2 versus G3, respectively. Male gender and Hispanic race associated with harmful alcohol use. Of 593 600 ALD admissions (5%, 77%, and 18% in G1-G3 respectively), acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) occurred in 7.2%, (7.2 in G2 vs 6.7% in G1 and G3, P < 0.001). After controlling for other variables, ACLF development among ALD hospitalizations was higher by 14% and 10% in G1 and G2 versus G3, respectively. Female gender and Hispanic race were associated with increased ACLF risk by 8% and 17% respectively. Of 20,245 ALD LT listings (3.4%, 84.4%, and 12.2% in G1-G3 respectively), ACLF occurred in 28% candidates. Risk of severe (grade 2 or 3) ACLF was higher by about 1.7 fold in G1, 1.5 fold in females and 20% in Hispanics. Conclusion Young age, female gender, and Hispanic race are independently associated with ALD-related burden and ACLF in the United States. If these findings are validated in prospective studies, strategies will be needed to reduce alcohol use in high risk individuals to reduce burden from ALD.
- ItemAn artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study(2024) Dunn, Winston; Li, Yanming; Singal, Ashwani K.; Simonetto, Douglas A.; Díaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Ayares, Gustavo; Arnold Alvaréz, Jorge Ignacio; Ayala-Valverde, Maria; Perez, Diego; Gomez, Jaime; Escarate, Rodrigo; Fuentes López, Eduardo; Ramirez-Cadiz, Carolina; Morales-Arraez, Dalia; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Ahn, Joseph C.; Buryska, Seth; Mehta, Heer; Dunn, Nicholas; Waleed, Muhammad; Stefanescu, Horia; Bumbu, Andreea; Horhat, Adelina; Attar, Bashar; Agrawal, Rohit; Cabezas, Joaquin; Echavaria, Victor; Cuyas, Berta; Poca, Maria; Soriano, German; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Jalal, Prasun K.; Higuera-de-la-Tijera, Fatima; Kulkarni, Anand V.; Rao, P. Nagaraja; Guerra-Salazar, Patricia; Skladany, Lubomir; Kubanek, Natalia; Prado, Veronica; Clemente-Sanchez, Ana; Rincon, Diego; Haider, Tehseen; Chacko, Kristina R.; Romero, Gustavo A.; Pollarsky, Florencia D.; Restrepo, Juan C.; Toro, Luis G.; Yaquich, Pamela; Mendizabal, Manuel; Garrido, Maria L.; Marciano, Sebastian; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Vargas, Victor; Jimenez, Cesar; Hudson, David; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Ortiz, Guillermo; Abraldes, Juan G.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese, Marco; Shah, Vijay H.; Bataller, Ramon; Arab, Juan P.Background and Aims: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. Approach and Results: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Conclusions: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.
- ItemAssociation between public health policies on alcohol and worldwide cancer, liver disease and cardiovascular disease outcomes(Elsevier B.V., 2023) Diaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Fuentes, López Eduardo; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Ayares Campos, Gustavo Ignacio; Corsi Sotelo, Oscar Felipe; Arnold Alvarez, Jorge Ignacio; Cannistra Cadiz, Macarena Rossella; Vio Quiroz, Danae Fernanda; Marquez Lomas, Andrea; Ramirez Cadiz, Carolina Andrea; Medel Salas, María Paz; Hernández Tejero, María; Ferreccio Readi, Fresia Catterina; Lazo Bravo, Mariana Carolina; Roblero Cum, Juan Pablo; Cotter, Thomas G.; Kulkarni ,Anand V.; Kim, Won; Brahmania, Mayur; Louvet, Alexandre; Tapper, Elliot B.; Dunn, Winston; Simonetto, Douglas; Shah, Vijay H.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Lazarus, Jeffrey V.; Singal, Ashwabi K.; Bataller, Ramón; Arrese Jimenez, Marco Antonio; Arab Verdugo, Juan Pablo© 2023 The Author(s)Background & Aims: The long-term impact of alcohol-related public health policies (PHPs) on disease burden is unclear. We aimed to assess the association between alcohol-related PHPs and alcohol-related health consequences. Methods: We conducted an ecological multi-national study including 169 countries. We collected data on alcohol-related PHPs from the WHO Global Information System of Alcohol and Health 2010. Data on alcohol-related health consequences between 2010–2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. We classified PHPs into five items, including criteria for low, moderate, and strong PHP establishment. We estimated an alcohol preparedness index (API) using multiple correspondence analysis (0 lowest and 100 highest establishment). We estimated an incidence rate ratio (IRR) for outcomes according to API using adjusted multilevel generalized linear models with a Poisson family distribution. Results: The median API in the 169 countries was 54 [IQR 34.9–76.8]. The API was inversely associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD) prevalence (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.03–0.60; p = 0.010), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) mortality (IRR 0.14; 95% CI 0.03–0.79; p = 0.025), mortality due to neoplasms (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02–0.40; p = 0.002), alcohol-attributable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.02–0.65; p = 0.014), and cardiovascular diseases (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02–0.41; p = 0.002). The highest associations were observed in the Americas, Africa, and Europe. These associations became stronger over time, and AUD prevalence was significantly lower after 2 years, while ALD mortality and alcohol-attributable HCC incidence decreased after 4 and 8 years from baseline API assessment, respectively (p <0.05). Conclusions: The API is a valuable instrument to quantify the robustness of alcohol-related PHP establishment. Lower AUD prevalence and lower mortality related to ALD, neoplasms, alcohol-attributable HCC, and cardiovascular diseases were observed in countries with a higher API. Our results encourage the development and strengthening of alcohol-related policies worldwide. Impact and implications: We first developed an alcohol preparedness index, an instrument to assess the existence of alcohol-related public policies for each country. We then evaluated the long-term association of the country's alcohol preparedness index in 2010 with the burden of chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, other neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease. The strengthening of alcohol-related public health policies could impact long-term mortality rates from cardiovascular disease, neoplasms, and liver disease. These conditions are the main contributors to the global burden of disease related to alcohol use. Over time, this association has not only persisted but also grown stronger. Our results expand the preliminary evidence regarding the importance of public health policies in controlling alcohol-related health consequences.
- ItemComparative effectiveness of different corticosteroid regimens in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis(Lippincott Williams and Wilkins, 2024) Islam, Alvi Husni; Díaz, Luis Antonio; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Guizzetti, Leonardo; Mortuza, Rokhsana; Dunn, Winston; Singal, Ashwani K.; Simonetto, Douglas; Ramírez Cadiz, Carolina; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Cabezas, Joaquín; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Jalal, Prasun K.; Higuera De La Tijera, Fátima; Skladany, Lubomir; Bystrianska, Natalia; Rincón, Diego; Chacko, Kristina R.; Ventura Cots, Meritxell; García Tsao, Guadalupe; Abraldes, Juan G.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese Jiménez, Marco; Shah, Vijay; Bataller, Ramón; Arab Verdugo, Juan Pablo
- ItemComparison Between Dynamic Models for Predicting Response to Corticosteroids in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Cohort Study(WILEY, 2025) Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Díaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Guizzetti, Leonardo; Dunn, Winston; Mehta, Heer; Arnold, Jorge; Ayares Campos, Gustavo Ignacio; Mortuza, Rokhsana; Mahli, Gurpreet; Islam, Alvi H.; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Simonetto, Douglas; Singal, Ashwani K.; Elfeki, Mohamed A.; Ramirez-Cadiz, Carolina; Cabezas, Joaquin; Echavarria, Victor; Cots, Meritxell Ventura; La Tijera, Maria Fatima Higuera-De; Abraldes, Juan G.; Al-Karaghouli, Mustafa; Jalal, Prasun K.; Ali Ibrahim, Mohamad; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Goyes, Daniela; Skladany, Lubomir; Havaj, Daniel J.; Sulejova, Karolina; Selcanova, Svetlana Adamcova; Rincon, Diego; Shah, Vijay H.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese, Marco; Bataller, Ramon; Arab, Juan PabloSeveral dynamic models predict mortality and corticosteroid response in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), yet no consensus exists on the most effective model. This study aimed to assess predictive models for corticosteroid response and short-term mortality in severe AH within a global cohort. We conducted a multi-national study of patients with severe AH treated with corticosteroids for at least 7 days, enrolled between 2009 and 2019. Dynamic models-Lille-4, Lille-7, trajectory of serum bilirubin (TSB), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR)-were used to estimate 30- and 90-day mortality. Lille-7 demonstrated the highest accuracy for both 30- and 90-day mortality.
- ItemDisparities in steatosis prevalence in the United States by Race or Ethnicity according to the 2023 criteria(2024) Díaz, Luis Antonio; Lazarus, Jeffrey V.; Fuentes López, Eduardo; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Ayares Campos, Gustavo Ignacio; Desaleng, Hailemichael; Danpanichkul, Pojsakorn; Cotter, Thomas G.; Dunn, Winston; Barrera, Francisco; Wijarnpreecha, Karn; Noureddin, Mazen; Alkhouri, Naim; Singal, Ashwani K.; Wong, Robert J.; Younossi, Zobair M.; Rinella, Mary E.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Bataller, Ramon; Loomba, Rohit; Arrese Jiménez, Marco; Arab Verdugo, Juan Pablo© The Author(s) 2024.Introduction: The 2023 nomenclature defined criteria for steatotic liver disease (SLD), including metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and the overlapping MASLD/ALD (MetALD). We aimed to assess racial and ethnic disparities in the SLD prevalence among United States (US) adults based on this new nomenclature. Methods: We undertook a cross-sectional study employing the 2017–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. We identified SLD according to a controlled attenuation parameter ≥288 dB/m, liver stiffness ≥7.2 kPa, or elevated aminotransferase levels. Alcohol use thresholds were established according to the updated SLD definition. We estimated prevalences using the complex design of the NHANES survey. Multivariable logistic regressions with complex design weights were employed. Results: A total of 5532 individuals are included. The mean age is 45.4 years, and 50.9% are women. The adjusted estimated prevalence of MASLD is 42.4% (95% CI: 41.1–43.8%), MetALD 1.7% (95% CI: 1.3–2.0%), and ALD 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.8%). Hispanics exhibit a higher prevalence of SLD, but there are no significant differences in advanced fibrosis prevalence due to SLD among racial/ethnic groups. In MASLD, men, individuals aged 40–64 and ≥65 years, Hispanics, those with health insurance, higher BMI, diabetes, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol or use of lipid-lowering agents are independently associated with a higher risk, while Blacks have the lowest risk. In MetALD, men and higher BMI are independently associated with a higher risk of MetALD in adjusted multivariable analysis. In ALD, the adjusted multivariable analysis shows that only health insurance is independently associated with a lower ALD risk. Conclusions: MASLD prevalence is high in the US, especially in men, older individuals, and Hispanics. MetALD and ALD prevalence was substantial but could be underestimated.
- ItemIdentification of Optimal Therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol associated Hepatitis: a worldwide study(2021) Arab, Juan Pablo; Díaz, Luis Antonio; Baeza, Natalia; Idalsoaga, Francisco; Fuentes-López, Eduardo; Arnold, Jorge; Ramírez, Carolina A.; Morales-Arraez, Dalia; Ventura-Cots, Meritxell; Alvarado-Tapias, Edilmar; Wei Zhang; Clark, Virginia; Simonetto, Douglas; Ahn, Joseph C.; Buryska, Seth; Mehta, Tej I.; Stefanescu, Horia; Horhat, Adelina; Bumbu, Andreea; Dunn, Winston
- ItemMELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis(Elsevier B.V., 2023) Diaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Fuentes Lopez, Eduardo; Ayares Campos, Gustavo Ignacio; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Arnold Álvarez, Jorge Ignacio; Valverde, María Ayala; Perez, Diego; Gómez, Jaime; Escarate, Rodrigo; Villalon Friedrich, Alejandro Andrés; Ramírez, Carolina A.; Hernández-Tejero, María; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Simonetto, Douglas; Ahn, Joseph C.; Buryska, Seth; Dunn, Winston; Mehta, Heer; Agrawal, Rohit; Cabezas, Joaquín; Garcia Carrera, Inés; Cuyas, Berta; Poca, Maria; Soriano, German; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Jalal, Prasun K.; Abdulsada, Saba; Higuera de la Tijera, Fátima; Kulkarni, Anand V.; Rao, P. Nagaraja; Guerra Salazar, Patricia; Skladany, Lubomir; Bystrianska, Natália; Clemente Sánchez, Ana; Villaseca Gómez, Clara; Haider, Tehseen; Chacko, Kristina R.; Romero, Gustavo A.; Pollarsky Florencia D.; Restrepo, Juan Carlos; Castro Sánchez, Susan; Toro, Luis G.; Yaquich, Pamela; Mendizabal, Manuel; Garrido, María Laura; Marciano, Sebastián; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Vargas, Víctor; Jimenez, César; Louvet, Alexandre; Garcia Tsao, Guadalupe; Roblero, Juan Pablo; Abraldes, Juan G.; Shah, Vijay H.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese Jimenez, Marco Antonio; Singal, Ashwani K.; Bataller, Ramón; Arab Verdugo, Juan Pablo© 2023 The Author(s)Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20–33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732–0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713–0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691–0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723–0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727–0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724–0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708–0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687–0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805–0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.
- ItemProvider Attitudes and Practices for Alcohol Screening, Treatment, and Education in Patients With Liver Disease: A Survey From the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease Special Interest Group(2021) Im, Gene Y.; Mellinger, Jessica L.; Winters, Adam; Aby, Elizabeth S.; Lominadze, Zurabi; Rice, John; Lucey, Michael R.; Arab, Juan P.; Goel, Aparna; Jophlin, Loretta L.; Sherman, Courtney B.; Parker, Richard; Chen, Po-Hung; Devuni, Deepika; Sidhu, Sandeep; Dunn, Winston; Szabo, Gyongyi; Singal, Ashwani K.; Shah, Vijay H.BACKGROUND & AIMS: While abstinence-promoting behavioral and pharmacotherapies are part of the therapeutic foundation for alcohol use disorder (AUD) and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), these therapies, along with alcohol screening and education, are often underutilized. Our aim was to examine provider attitudes and practices for alcohol screening, treatment and education in patients with liver disease.
- ItemRacial and ethnic disparities in the natural history of alcohol-associated liver disease in the United States(WILEY, 2024) Ayares Campos, Gustavo Ignacio; Diaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Fuentes Lopez, Eduardo; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Cotter, Thomas G.; Dunn, Winston; Simonetto, Douglas; Shah, Vijay H.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Lazarus, Jeffrey V.; Bataller, Ramon; Arrese, Marco; Wong, Robert J.; Singal, Ashwani K.; Arab, Juan PabloBackground: Outcomes in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) are influenced by several race and ethnic factors, yet its natural history across the continuum of patients in different stages of the disease is unknown.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of U.S. adults from 2011 to 2018, using three nationally representative databases to examine potential disparities in relevant outcomes among racial and ethnic groups. Our analysis included logistic and linear regressions, along with competing risk analysis.ResultsBlack individuals had the highest daily alcohol consumption (12.6 g/day) while Hispanic participants had the largest prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (33.5%). In a multivariable-adjusted model, Hispanic and Asian participants were independently associated with a higher ALD prevalence compared to Non-Hispanic White interviewees (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8 and OR: 1.5 95% CI:1.1-2.0, respectively), while Blacks participants had a lower ALD prevalence (OR: .7 95% CI: .6-.9), and a lower risk of mortality during hospitalization due to ALD (OR: .83 95% CI: .73-.94). Finally, a multivariate competing-risk analysis showed that Hispanic ethnicity had a decreased probability of liver transplantation if waitlisted for ALD (SHR: .7, 95% CI: .6-.8) along with female Asian population (HR: .40, 95% CI: .26-.62).ConclusionsAfter accounting for key social and biological health determinants, the Hispanic population showed an increased risk of ALD prevalence, even with lower alcohol consumption. Additionally, Hispanic and Asian female patients had reduced access to liver transplantation compared to other enlisted patients., image
- ItemThe Mortality Index for Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Novel Prognostic Score(2022) Kezer, Camille A.; Buryska, Seth M.; Ahn, Joseph C.; Harmsen, William S.; Dunn, Winston; Singal, Ashwani K.; Arab, Juan P.; Diaz, Luis A.; Arnold, Jorge; Kamath, Patrick S.; Shah, Vijay H.; Simonetto, Douglas A.Objective: To develop a new scoring system that more accurately predicts 30-day mortality in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH).