Browsing by Author "Cifuentes, Luis Abdon"

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    Accounting for variation in the explanatory power of the psychometric paradigm: The effects of aggregation and focus
    (ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2007) Bronfman, Nicolas C.; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon; Dekay, Michael L.; Willis, Henry H.
    Most psychometric studies of risk perception have used data that have been averaged over participants prior to analysis. Such aggregation obscures variation among participants and inflates the magnitude of relationships between psychometric dimensions and dependent variables such as overall riskiness. However, most studies that have not averaged data over participants have also shifted the focus of analysis from differences among hazards to differences among participants. Hence, it is unclear whether observed reductions in the explanatory power of psychometric dimensions result from the change in the level of analysis or from the change in the focus of analysis. Following Willis et al.'s ( 2005) analysis of ecological risk perceptions, we unconfound these two variables in a study of risk perceptions in Santiago, Chile, although we use more traditional hazards, attributes, and statistical procedures. Results confirm that psychometric dimensions explain less variation in judgments of riskiness and acceptability at the disaggregate level than at the aggregate level. However, they also explain less variation when the focus of analysis is differences among participants rather than differences among hazards. These two effects appear to be similar in magnitude. A simple hybrid analysis economically represents variation among participants' judgments of hazards' riskiness by relating those judgments to a common set of psychometric dimensions from a traditional aggregate-level analysis.
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    Chronic exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and mortality: Evidence from Chile
    (2023) Busch, Pablo; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon; Cabrera, Camila
    Background:Many Chilean cities suffer from high air pollution from industrial, mobile, and residential wood-burning sources. Several studies have linked PM2.5 air pollution exposure to higher mortality risk from cardiovascular, pulmonary, and lung cancer causes. In recent years, Chile has developed an extensive air pollution monitoring network to enforce air quality standards for PM2.5, allowing the study of the medium-term association between PM2.5 and mortality. Methods:A negative binomial regression model was used to study the association between 3-year average PM2.5 concentrations and age-adjusted mortality rates for 105 of the 345 municipalities in Chile. Models were fitted for all (ICD10 A to Q codes), cardiopulmonary (I and J), cardiovascular (I), pulmonary (J), cancer (C), and lung cancer (C33-C34) causes; controlling for meteorological, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics. Results:A significant association of PM2.5 exposure with cardiopulmonary (relative risk for 10 mu g/m(3) PM2.5: 1.06; 95% confidence interval = 1.00, 1.13) and pulmonary (1.11; 1.02, 1.20) age-adjusted mortality rates was found. Cardiovascular (1.06; 0.99, 1.13) and all causes (1.02; 0.98, 1.07) were positive, but not significant. No significant association was found between cancer and lung cancer. The positive associations remained even when controlling for multiple confounding factors, model specifications, and when considering different methods for exposure characterization. These estimates are in line with results from cohort studies from the United States and European studies. Conclusion:Three-year average PM2.5 exposure is positively associated with the age-adjusted mortality rate for cardiopulmonary and cardiovascular causes in Chile. This provides evidence of the medium-term exposure effect of fine particles on long-term mortality rates.
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    Health and Economic Benefits of Complying With the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines for Particulate Matter in Nine Major Latin American Cities
    (2024) Madaniyazi, Lina; Alpizar, Jefferson; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon; Riojas-Rodriguez, Horacio; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Carrasco Escobar, Gabriel; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Colistro, Valentina; Roye, Dominic; Tobias, Aurelio
    Objectives This study aims to estimate the short-term preventable mortality and associated economic costs of complying with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQGs) limit values for PM10 and PM2.5 in nine major Latin American cities.Methods We estimated city-specific PM-mortality associations using time-series regression models and calculated the attributable mortality fraction. Next, we used the value of statistical life to calculate the economic benefits of complying with the WHO AQGs limit values.Results In most cities, PM concentrations exceeded the WHO AQGs limit values more than 90% of the days. PM10 was found to be associated with an average excess mortality of 1.88% with concentrations above WHO AQGs limit values, while for PM2.5 it was 1.05%. The associated annual economic costs varied widely, between US$ 19.5 million to 3,386.9 million for PM10, and US$ 196.3 million to 2,209.6 million for PM2.5.Conclusion Our findings suggest that there is an urgent need for policymakers to develop interventions to achieve sustainable air quality improvements in Latin America. Complying with the WHO AQGs limit values for PM10 and PM2.5 in Latin American cities would substantially benefits for urban populations.
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    Mortality burden and economic loss attributable to cold and heat in Central and South America
    (2024) Tobias, Aurelio; Iniguez, Carmen; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Riojas, Horacio; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon; Roye, Dominic; Abrutzky, Rosana; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Correa, Patricia Matus; Osorio, Samuel; Carrasco, Gabriel; Colistro, Valentina; Pascal, Mathilde; Chanel, Olivier; Madaniyazi, Lina; Gasparrini, Antonio
    Background:We quantify the mortality burden and economic loss attributable to nonoptimal temperatures for cold and heat in the Central and South American countries in the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network.Methods:We collected data for 66 locations from 13 countries in Central and South America to estimate location-specific temperature-mortality associations using time-series regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We calculated the attributable deaths for cold and heat as the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles, above and below the minimum mortality temperature, and used the value of a life year to estimate the economic loss of delayed deaths.Results:The mortality impact of cold varied widely by country, from 9.64% in Uruguay to 0.22% in Costa Rica. The heat-attributable fraction for mortality ranged from 1.41% in Paraguay to 0.01% in Ecuador. Locations in arid and temperate climatic zones showed higher cold-related mortality (5.10% and 5.29%, respectively) than those in tropical climates (1.71%). Arid and temperate climatic zones saw lower heat-attributable fractions (0.69% and 0.58%) than arid climatic zones (0.92%). Exposure to cold led to an annual economic loss of $0.6 million in Costa Rica to $472.2 million in Argentina. In comparison, heat resulted in economic losses of $0.05 million in Ecuador to $90.6 million in Brazil.Conclusion:Most of the mortality burden for Central and South American countries is caused by cold compared to heat, generating annual economic losses of $2.1 billion and $290.7 million, respectively. Public health policies and adaptation measures in the region should account for the health effects associated with nonoptimal temperatures.
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    Short-term exposure to fine particulate pollution and elderly mortality in Chile
    (2024) Busch, Pablo; Rocha, Paulo; Lee, Kyung Jin; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon; Tai, Xiao Hui
    Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is known to cause adverse health outcomes. Most of the evidence has been derived from developed countries, with lower pollution levels and different demographics and comorbidities from the rest of the world. Here we leverage new satellite-based measurements of PM2.5, combined with comprehensive public records in Chile, to study the effect of PM2.5 pollution on elderly mortality. We find that a 10 mu g/m3 monthly increase in PM2.5 exposure is associated with a 1.7% increase (95% C.I.: 1.1-2.4%) in all-cause mortality for individuals aged 75+. Satellite-based measurements allow us to comprehensively investigate heterogeneous effects. We find remarkably similar effect sizes across baseline exposure, rural and urban areas, income, and over time, demonstrating consistency in the evidence on mortality effects of PM2.5 exposure. The most notable source of heterogeneity is geographical, with effects closer to 5% in the center-south and in the metropolitan area.
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    The influence of information delivery on risk ranking by lay people
    (ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2006) Gutierrez, Virna Vaneza; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon; Bronfman, Nicolas C.
    An experiment was conducted in a real environment to test how information delivery affects risk ranking. Another aim was to propose the best format for delivering information. Different people received different types of information about risks in a risk ranking exercise: Group 1 received a descriptive paragraph about the hazards (Format 1); Group 2 added a table with specific information on risk attributes (Format 2); Group 3 added information on the steps taken locally to mitigate the risks (Format 3), and Group 4 received a data table without identifying the hazard (Format 4). Agreement among subjects' rankings within a group and from group to group was used to measure the potential impact of information delivery. Average pair-wise Spearman correlation was used to compare the level of agreement within each group. Results showed greater consensus in the group using Format 4 than in Formats 1, 2, and 3, with the only significant difference between Format 4 and each one of the others. The results show that the amount of information, and the way it is delivered, may affect how lay people rank risks, but the differences are not statistically significant.
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    Trust, acceptance and knowledge of technological and environmental hazards in Chile
    (ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2008) Bronfman, Nicolas C.; Vazquez, Esperanza Lopez; Gutierrez, Virna Vaneza; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon
    Studies over the past decade have found empirical links between trust in risk management institutions and the risk perceptions and acceptability of various individual hazards. Mostly addressing food technologies, no study to date has explored wider possible relationships among all four core variables (risk, benefit, trust and acceptability) covering a heterogeneous group of hazards. Our prime objective was to ascertain effects among social trust in regulatory entities, and the public's perceived risk, perceived benefit and the degree of acceptability towards both technological and environmental hazards. We also assess whether trust in regulatory authorities is the cause (causal model) or a consequence (associationist model) of a hazard's acceptability for a wide and heterogeneous range of hazards on all four core variables. Using a web-based survey, 539 undergraduates in Chile rated the five variables across 30 hazards. Implications for technology and environmental risk management organizations are discussed. Independent of the magnitude of the perceived risk or benefit surrounding a given hazard, or how knowledgeable the public claim to be of it, the trust sustained in regulatory institutions will either generate or be the consequence of public attitudes towards the hazard.