Browsing by Author "Castilla-Rho, Juan"

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    Agent-based models of groundwater systems: A review of an emerging approach to simulate the interactions between groundwater and society
    (2024) Canales Piccolo, Marcos Alejandro; Castilla-Rho, Juan; Rojas, Rodrigo; Vicuña Díaz, Sebastian; Ball, James
    Understanding how society can address and mitigate threats to groundwater sustainability remains a pressing challenge in the Anthropocene era. This article presents the first comprehensive and critical review of coupling Groundwater Models and Agent-Based Models (GW-ABMs) to address four key challenges: (1) adequately representing human behaviour, (2) capturing spatial and temporal variations, (3) integrating two-way feedback loops between social and physical systems, and (4) incorporating water governance structures. Our findings indicate a growing effort to model bounded rationality in human behaviour (Challenge 1 or C1) and a dominant focus on policy applications (C4). Future research should address data scarcity issues through Epstein's Backward approach (C2), capture feedbacks via tele-coupled GW-ABMs, and explore other modelling techniques like Analytic Elements Groundwater Models (C3). We conclude with recommendations to thrust future GW-ABMs to the highest standards, aiming to enhance their acceptance and impact in decision-making and policy formulation for sustainable groundwater management.
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    Using a socio-hydrology stance to address the paradox between global decarbonisation, lithium fever, and sustainability in the Atacama Salt Deposit
    (2021) Canales Piccolo, Marcos Alejandro; Castilla-Rho, Juan; Vicuña Díaz, Sebastián; Ball, James; Filatova, Tatiana
    Climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by replacing petroleum-driven vehicles with electric vehicles powered by rechargeable lithium batteries. By 2025, 45% of the world’s Lithium will be sourced from water-intensive mining operations adjacent to fragile eco-hydrological systems in the Atacama Desert, the world’s driest desert. In the remote Atacama salt flat basin, home to one of the world’s richest deposits of high-grade lithium, brines are being mined from aquifers, with potential impacts on the long-term environmental, ecological, economic, and social viability of the system. Stakeholders (scientists, communities, and decision-makers) are currently entrenched in adversarial relationships and top-down policy-making and implementation. A socio-hydrology stance considering telecoupled systems of people and water is essential to address the paradox between the quest for global decarbonisation and unsustainable use of water resources in the Atacama region. The inclusion of social drivers (beliefs, biases, values, and heuristics), however, adds complexity to the analysis. To address this complexity, novel methodologies such as participatory modeling (PM) and agent-based modeling (ABM) can be implemented. The former can enrich the system with specialist and local knowledge, increase the perceived utility of models, their credibility through transparent communication of the limitations and uncertainties, and the adoption and acceptance of the model results, which ultimately guide public policy. The latter seeks to represent explicitly the complexity and heterogeneity in these telecoupled systems. The socio-hydrological problem at the Atacama salt flat is conceptualized using the Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping methodology through participatory workshops, involving scientists, regulators, and government officials. An ABM is then coupled to an integrated and regional groundwater-surface water model to better understand the impacts of management scenarios and social interactions, and their feedbacks on the eco-hydrological system. Ultimately, the aim of this research is to take a socio-hydrology stance to analyze a wicked problem with social, environmental, and economic implications at the local and global scales, and in doing so, expand fundamental knowledge of socio-hydrology.