Browsing by Author "Casassus, J"

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    Optimal exploration investments under price and geological-technical uncertainty: a real options model
    (WILEY, 2001) Cortazar, G; Schwartz, ES; Casassus, J
    This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e,g, oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological-technical uncertainty. After a successful several-stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological-technical uncertainty.
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    Stochastic convenience yield implied from commodity futures and interest rates
    (BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 2005) Casassus, J; Collin Dufresne, P
    We characterize a three-factor model of commodity spot prices, convenience yields, and interest rates, which nests many existing specifications. The model allows convenience yields to depend on spot prices and interest rates. It also allows for time-varying risk premia. Both may induce mean reversion in spot prices, albeit with very different economic implications. Empirical results show strong evidence for spot-price level dependence in convenience yields for crude oil and copper, which implies mean reversion in prices under the risk-neutral measure. Silver, gold, and copper exhibit time variation in risk premia that implies mean reversion of prices under the physical measure.
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    Unspanned stochastic volatility and fixed income derivatives pricing
    (ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2005) Casassus, J; Collin Dufresne, P; Goldstein, B
    We propose a parsimonious 'unspanned stochastic volatility' model of the term structure and study its implications for fixed-income option prices. The drift and quadratic variation of the short rate are affine in three state variables (the short rate, its long-term mean and variance) which follow a joint Markov (vector) process. Yet, bond prices are exponential affine functions of only two state variables, independent of the current interest rate volatility level. Because this result holds for an arbitrary volatility process, such a process can be calibrated to match fixed income derivative prices. Furthermore, this model can be 'extended' (by relaxing the time-homogeneity) to fit any arbitrary term structure. In its 'HJM' form, this model nests the analogous stochastic equity volatility model of Heston (190) [Heston, S.L., 1993. A closed form solution for options with stochastic volatility. Review of Financial Studies 6, 327-343]. In particular, if the volatility process is specified to be affine, closed-form solutions for interest rate options obtain. We propose an efficient algorithm to compute these prices. An application using data on caps and floors shows that the model can capture very well the implied Black spot volatility surface, while simultaneously fitting the observed term structure. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.