Browsing by Author "Ayala Santander, Marysol"
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- ItemComplex Theory in Small Systems: An Application to the Bolivian Power System(IEEE, 2014) Watts Casimis, David; Ayala Santander, MarysolThe occurrence of blackouts in recent years and their impact on society call into question the traditional planning and reliability analysis, which focuses on events of significant chances, without explicitly considering the development of catastrophic situations such as blackouts. The complexity theory provides concepts widely applied in other areas, such as economics and science, opening a new field of study in electrical systems. This would provide complementary tools to traditional analysis, helping explaining, quantifying and modeling events with very low probability and high impact for society, such as blackouts and cascading failures. These new concepts are applied to characterize the Bolivian power system, marking the first application to a Latin American system. Results are surprising because of its failure behavior is consistent with a “power law†, suggesting a complex system, characterized by self-organized criticality (SOC) with long-term memory, where small perturbations can propagate out producing blackouts. This suggests that this theory would be appropriate not only to describe giant systems such as those from China and the U.S., but also for smaller systems, such as the Bolivian and other Latin American ones. It was shown that blackouts provide significant risks that would require explicit modeling and risk management.
- ItemTeoría de la complejidad : aplicación al sistema interconectado nacional de Bolivia(2012) Ayala Santander, Marysol; Watts Casimis, David; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de IngenieríaEn los últimos años la ocurrencia de blackouts y su impacto en la sociedad pone en consideración la planificación tradicional y el análisis de confiabilidad que se enfoca en eventos de bajo impacto sin considerar explícitamente situaciones catastróficas como el blackout. La teoría de complejidad da lugar a conceptos ampliamente usados en otras áreas como economía, abriendo un nuevo campo de estudio en sistemas eléctricos. Esta teoría podría proveer de herramientas complementarias para el análisis tradicional, ayudando de esta manera en la planificación, cuantificación y modelamiento de eventos con una baja probabilidad de ocurrencia y alto impacto para la sociedad, como es el blackout y las fallas en cascada. Este nuevo concepto es aplicado para la caracterización del sistema eléctrico de Bolivia, siendo una primera aplicación a un sistema Latinoamericano.