Follow-up of gallbladder polyps in a high-risk population of gallbladder cancer: a cohort study and multivariate survival competing risk analysis

Abstract

The risk of neoplasia in gallbladder polyps seems to be low, but the evidence from populations at high-risk of gallbladder cancer is limited. We aimed to estimate the risk and to identify the factors associated with neoplastic polyps in a high-risk Hispanic population. Methods: A retrospective cohort was recruited between January 2010 and December 2019 at a Chilean university center. Multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Fine–Gray models were fitted to account for competing risks. Covariate adjustment was conducted using propensity scores. The main outcome was the development of gallbladder adenomas or adenocarcinoma. Results: Overall, 748 patients were included, 59.6% underwent cholecystectomy. The median follow-up of patients not subjected to cholecystectomy was 54.7 months (12–128.6 months). Seventeen patients (2.27%) developed the outcome. After adjustment by age, sex, intralesional blood flow, lithiasis and gallbladder wall thickening, only polyp size (≥10 mm, adjusted-HR: 15.01, 95%CI: 5.4–48.2) and number of polyps (≥3 polyps, adjusted-HR: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.01–0.55) were associated with neoplasia. Conclusion: In a Hispanic population at high-risk for gallbladder cancer, gallbladder polyps seem to have a low risk of neoplasia. Polyp size was the main risk factor, while having multiple polyps was associated with an underlying benign condition.