Does the way democracy is obtained matter for economic development? : estimating the effect of transition to democracy with a coup
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2021
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Abstract
This paper studies the effects of transition to democracy with a coup conditional on the occurrence of a transition to democracy. Additionally, the study by Meyersson (2016) is extended by analyzing the effects of successful coups conditional on an attempted coup. Finally, a case study is carried out for the coup at Honduras in 2009. The results show that those countries that transition to democracy with a coup achieve a GDP per capita growth rate 1/3 lower in the next 10 years than those who do it without this type of event. Regarding the effects of successful coups, these are differentiated, when they overthrow an autocratic regime the effect is positive, while when they overthrow a democratic regime their effect is negative. The results for the case study are consistent with the last one, the impact of the coup at Honduras in 2009 on GDP per capita growth rate was negative although minor, which can be explained by the nature of said event.
The results suggest that democracy and the way in which it is obtained matters; however, its effect on long-term development continues to be positive.
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Tesis (Magíster en Economía)--Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2021